Jenny posts more dedicated-device doom-and-gloom today:
I would argue that the time has come for audio ebooks and even ebooks on PDAs, but dedicated devices should have been roundly trounced and were. Just like users are not flocking to Pressplay and other online services that don’t offer what they want, Gemstar, its predecessor, and its rivals just don’t understand the power of standards and ease-of- delivery. Consumers aren’t going to invest their time and money in a device that can only read one specific type of content with few choices available in that format.
When Gemstar decided to stop letting their customers (the few folks that did actually plunk down money for their devices) download web pages and documents onto their devices, I knew the game was over. It was a clear illustration of their lack of vision and mis-reading of the market, and it failed miserably.
The ebook content industry is choking itself because of a lack of standards and available titles, which is exactly what we’re seeing with digital music online from the record labels. Publishers should wake up to the fact that they are killing off their most potentially lucrative digital markets for fear of success.
Note the two different players Jenny mentions: Gemstar and publishers. I happen to know that it wasn’t Gemstar running the show here. It was the publishers. (By the way, if you get the impression from this blog that I am not terribly impressed with the savvy and vision of the typical large publisher—you are absolutely right.)
Gemstar cut the knees out from under web-page downloaders because publishers told them to. Security/DRM issues. Competition. That kind of thing. And the folks who would have stood up to the publishers, who had the vision, mostly left when Gemstar took over NuvoMedia and SoftBook.
Of course it was bloody suicidal for Gemstar. Some of them (the few holdovers, in my personal experience) even knew it. But the fundamental mistaken assumption here is that Gemstar’s customers were book buyers and book readers. Nope. Until the fabled “critical mass” of content appeared, Gemstar believed it had to woo publishers, not readers. Readers (thought publishers and Gemstar alike) would follow content like sheep. Who controls content? Not readers. Publishers. Publishers.
Nor was Gemstar the only thinker along these lines. Versaware and NetLibrary travelled the same road to the same destination. I think it’s useful to understand why, so that responsibility can be laid at the right door.
Is it coincidence that these three casualties were silent about their connections with the OEBF and OEBPS, whereas still-twitching Microsoft made its connection evident throughout its authoring guidelines and market appeals? One wonders, yes, one wonders… Ironic, that Microsoft of all entities should realize benefits from standards awareness. (Not that Microsoft is itself all that pleased about the progress of ebooks, but that’s another story.)
Because I think there’s an important strategic point to be made, I do want to question one part of Jenny’s otherwise well-argued diatribe:
Consumers aren’t going to invest their time and money in a device that can only read one specific type of content with few choices available in that format.
Which consumers, Jenny?
Back at the first OEBF annual meeting, it was astoundingly clear that the folks dancing in the aisles about ebooks for reasons other than dollar signs were the visually-impaired. Makes sense. Small choice combined with device-specificity is one hell of a lot better than the zero choice they have now. And standards-awareness promised (and still promises) quite a bit more than small choice.
In other words, build it, and you lock in a market. A small one, I grant you. Nevertheless, isn’t a small but reliable market better to start out with than a large but wary and fickle one? Bird in the hand, and all that.
That, I think, is the key to the failure of dedicated devices. The dedicated-device boys saw the potential for big dollar signs from the mass market, despite that market’s near-saturation with p-books, so they ignored the unique smaller markets crying out to be served.
Nor are the visually-impaired the only folks to be stupidly ignored. How long has academia been screaming and yelling about the ridiculous waste and inefficiency of the paper publishing process? Am I the only person to see a tremendous opportunity there? And I certainly don’t think it’s coincidence that niche markets (sci-fi, romance, mystery) are the ones making money for the indie e-pubbers; big publishers have trouble making money on these genres (best-sellers aside), so don’t treat them well.
I hate to bring up Clayton Christensen and his disruptive-technology idea, because it’s been done to death, but I can’t help thinking that ebooks should have been treated as a disruptive technology—go after the small underserved markets, not the big immediately-lucrative ones—and weren’t.
On a geekier level (because Mung knoweth I have no stature to be talking marketing strategy), I note that the best work done on the Open eBook Publication Structure has come from serving niche markets. There’s some unbelievably incredibly awesome navigation stuff coming in the next-release-but-one of the OEBPS that comes right straight out of the accessibility community. The pioneering work being done now on multiple-XML-namespace docs and publication packaging come from a desire to make the science and tech folks happy with MathML.
I think that Jenny’s completely right that for the fiction-and-trade reader, dedicated devices are a pointless luxury. PDAs and gadgets like the OQO are where it’s at. (And if I implied otherwise in the email I sent to Jenny a while back that I suspect was overblunt, I apologize.)
Tell you what, though. I want my LinguistBook. Concordances on demand. Interlinear text. On-the-fly flipping between different editions of the same text. Expansion and contraction of scribal abbreviations at will. An etymological dictionary for lookups, fully cognizant of common spelling variations and abbreviations. Statistical toys for hard-core lexicographers. Put that in a dedicated device, and I am ever so there.
Hey, AKMA, what do you want in BiblicalCriticismBook? (Which is probably a specialized version of the more general LitCritBook, which itself probably overlaps LinguistBook considerably.) Don’t be shy. We specialized markets are the future of dedicated devices. We have to be.
Or, heck, why not RPGBook? That’s much simpler. Incorporate easy-access (queryable, preferably) tables, a dice roller (which is only a jumped-up random-number generator; heck, even I can program that!), a few character generators, an NPC name book, and a few basic forms (e.g. for adding the nifty new spell from the latest issue of Dragon Magazine), and there you are. Gamers would dig it. I guarantee. Lugging those books around gets to be a pain, especially in a LARP.
Finally, a secondhand quote regarding Audible:
Audible is also a good model for how content publishing on the Internet ought to work–the music industry should pay attention to what Audible is doing. I like Audible’s take on digital rights management: The books I download are mine to listen to and keep forever. I can download them again if I need to. I tried that with some e-books I bought at Amazon without success, which feels like flushing money down the drain.
Audible is missing one important thing. Not a standard; MP3 is that, unfortunately. An open standard. MP3 is not that. Neither is MPEG4, with which I believe Apple has already gone a few rounds.
These standards are proprietary, just as PDF is. They are at the mercy of the marketdroids and green eyeshades. Their owners can pull a Unisys at any time. Become too dependent on them. I dare you. That’s just what the marketdroids are waiting for.
Allow me to point in the direction of Ogg Vorbis, and suggest mildly that Audible go there. Open standards for content make a difference.